Jordan’s Nightmare Unfolds: The Silent Transfer That Could Redefine the Middle East
For decades, the idea that Jordan might become the 'alternative homeland' for Palestinians was dismissed in Amman as a far-fetched conspiracy theory—a distant nightmare. But today, under the shadow of Israel’s far-right government and the devastating war in Gaza, that nightmare is becoming a chilling reality. And this is the part most people miss: it’s not just about military invasion; it’s about a silent transfer that could uproot lives and redraw borders without a single shot fired—at least not at first.
The alarm bells in Jordan reached a deafening pitch when the Israeli cabinet approved measures to register vast swaths of the occupied West Bank as 'state land' under its Ministry of Justice. This move, hailed by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich as a 'settlement revolution,' effectively bypasses the military administration that has governed the territory since 1967, treating it as sovereign Israeli soil. For Jordan, this bureaucratic annexation is the final nail in the coffin of the status quo. With Israel’s 'Iron Wall' operation crushing refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem, Jordan’s leaders are no longer asking if a forced transfer is coming, but how to stop it.
But here’s where it gets controversial: Mamdouh al-Abbadi, Jordan’s former deputy prime minister, warns that the 'alternative homeland' is no longer a threat—it’s already in motion. 'After the West Bank, the enemy will move to the East Bank, to Jordan,' he told Al Jazeera. This isn’t just fear-mongering; it’s a calculated prediction based on Israel’s actions and rhetoric. The fear in Amman isn’t just about tanks crossing borders; it’s about a 'soft transfer'—making life in the West Bank so unbearable that Palestinians are forced into a gradual exodus toward Jordan.
Sunday’s decision to transfer land registration authority to the Israeli Justice Ministry is seen as a critical step in this process. By erasing Jordanian and Ottoman land registries that have protected Palestinian property rights for a century, Israel is clearing the legal path for massive settlement expansion. Al-Abbadi points to symbolic yet dangerous shifts, like the naming of a new Israeli brigade after Gilead, a mountainous region near Amman. 'This means the Israelis are proceeding with their strategic practices from the Nile to the Euphrates,' he warns. Is this a legitimate concern, or is Jordan overreacting? The comments section is open for debate.
As diplomatic avenues narrow, Jordan’s military options are under the microscope. The Jordan Valley, a fertile strip separating the two banks, is now the front line of what strategists call an 'existential defense.' Retired Major-General Mamoun Abu Nowar warns that Israel’s actions amount to an 'undeclared war' on the kingdom. If displacement pressure continues, Jordan may declare the Jordan Valley a closed military zone, a move that could ignite the region. But here’s the question: Can Jordan, with its unique social fabric of tribes and clans, truly stand up to Israel’s military might? Abu Nowar believes so, calling the tribes a 'second army.' But the situation is volatile, and if red lines are crossed, he warns of a 'regional earthquake.'
Compounding Jordan’s anxiety is a deep sense of abandonment by its oldest ally: the United States. For decades, the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom was a cornerstone of U.S. policy. But Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, argues that this 'strategic wager' has collapsed. 'The bet on Washington has faltered, if not collapsed,' he says, pointing to a paradigm shift during Trump’s presidency, when the U.S. pivoted toward Gulf capitals, 'dazzled by the shine of money and investments.' Even under Biden, and now with Trump’s return, the U.S. has shown a willingness to sacrifice Jordanian interests for Israel. Is the U.S. still a reliable ally, or has Jordan been left to fend for itself? Let’s hear your thoughts.
Facing this isolation, voices in Amman are calling for a radical overhaul of Jordan’s alliances. The kingdom’s cold peace with the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its shunning of Hamas are now seen as strategic errors. 'Jordan shot its diplomacy in the foot,' al-Rantawi explains, by isolating itself from key players like Hamas, which countries like Qatar, Egypt, and Turkiye have leveraged for influence. Is it too late for Jordan to change course, or has the damage already been done?
The consensus among Jordan’s elite is clear: the time for 'diplomatic warnings' is over. The language has shifted to mobilization and survival. In February, Jordan resumed its compulsory military service program, 'Flag Service,' after a 35-year hiatus. Al-Abbadi goes further, calling for universal conscription and cultural mobilization, including teaching Hebrew to Jordanian children. 'If there is a slow, camouflaged transfer, we must close the bridges immediately,' he warns. But is this enough? Can Jordan withstand the storm, or is it already too late?
As Israel rewrites the land deeds of the West Bank, erasing Palestinian ownership in ledgers and on the ground, Jordan faces its most precarious moment since 1967. The buffer is gone, and the kingdom stands alone in the path of the storm. 'If we do not wake up,' al-Abbadi says, 'the strategy will be: either us or them. There is no third option.' The question now is: Will Jordan survive this silent transfer, or will it become the next chapter in the region’s tragic history? Share your thoughts below.
